Microsoft Surface Hands Off

The more reporting I see on the Microsoft Surface announcement, the more confused I become about Microsoft's planning. The following article discusses the "hands on" time that journalists had with the Surface at Microsoft's event. More evidence that it was too little too soon.

Hands-Off: Microsoft Surface Tablet Review

It starts to look more and more like a small evolutionary step from the efforts Microsoft made 10 years ago, but with the benefit of having watched Apple and Google succeed and fail (respectively, to date) in the tablet space. The difference between a Microsoft tablet of 10 years ago and the Surface is that small thin form factors are possible without sacrificing too much power and they have a more measured attempt at touch based interfaces (on half of the Windows solution via Metro, no confusion there). Their mindset still has one foot firmly planted in the idea of a touch based veneer on top of a laptop form factor.

The end result ends up looking like a defensive play rather than an innovative risk and I think Microsoft should have continued with the innovative risk they started with Windows Phone.

If they can convince IT departments that a hybrid desktop/tablet solution is "good enough" to force on their users, Microsoft can continue a healthy business of producing products few people really likes but are willing to put up with. This may work in the enterprise, but I'm highly skeptical that the consumer market will go for this approach. Apple is moving toward making computing devices more like appliances - these are instant on devices with focused purpose via apps and little need for understanding or even knowing that underlying structures like file systems exist. For most uses, this is a great approach to take. Microsoft, even in addressing the new wave of touch based UI and tablet computing, is holding fast to computing paradigms started in the 80's. There is a place for that and transitions take time... Hopefully long enough to let Microsoft adjust if their current gambit doesn't play out in their favor.

Microsoft Surface

A few comments on Microsoft's announcement of the Surface tablet computer...

When are they going to stop putting Steve Balmer on stage? He's a terrible presenter to the point that anything he announces seems less impressive and relevant than if he were not involved. I can't imagine that they don't recognize this, so maybe he strong arms his way into the presentations? At least cut him back to a brief introduction of "Thanks for coming, we think you're going to love what we have to show you today. Here's Steven Sinofsky to tell you about it".

Steven Sinofsky was ill prepared for the presentation – he could barely take his eyes off the teleprompter. I'll give him the benefit if the doubt and assume for now that the whole event was thrown together quickly.

Panos Panay was polished and likable. We'll probably never see him again.

The cover as keyboard is a great idea on first blush. For short bursts of writing it probably is faster to type on than a software keyboard. But for short bursts of writing I think I would just quickly pull up the on screen keyboard rather than set the tablet up on a table with cover keyboard laid out. For long form writing it would pull ahead.

The most humorous thing to me is the online discussions that say Microsoft has solved tablets, first by including full Windows on (some) of them and second by including a physical keyboard. So... ten years ago, the only thing holding back Microsoft tablets was the lack of a cover keyboard?

It does seem to be a mistake to hype a product that they weren't prepared to show software running on as part of the presentation, with very little solid information like true price, release date, or specs. Where was the competitive pressure that made them throw together a rushed presentation right now?

Overall, the admittedly cool cover keyboard stole the show. Maybe they should have just announced that.

Facebook IPO, No

Facebook stock was opened to the general market today and it's performance was lackluster. It's unfair to make such a statement because one day does not a trend make. But...

Facebook has yet to show what value it has for businesses. This is important because Facebook's only relevant revenue stream is from advertisers. The platform has a huge potential for racking up ad impressions, but the value of these impressions is unknown. The ROI is impossibly difficult to measure. Many brands are still in a rush to gain fans because more fans equals more impressions, but most fans place little to no value on their own "liking" of a brand.

There are studies that attempt to associate a monetary value with a user that has "liked" a brand, but I've not seen or heard of one that had conclusive results... I may have another brief post on the kind of misleading and erroneous claims such reports can make.

Advertising on Facebook is still as much a defensive investment against competitors who are also advertising there, as it is a faith based strategy that volume of impressions will overcome the low value per impression. Perhaps if Facebook can figure out how to target users effectively the value proposition will change. I don't think they've figured this out yet.

All of this doubt makes Facebook's valuation unrealistic and I don't believe the stock will do well in the near term. Betting on this stock seems to me to be more about betting on the emotions of other investors and not on the company. That's not a strategy I like to follow.

UPDATE: The WSJ weekend edition (May 19-20, 2012) claims sources familiar with the matter that say Morgan Stanley (the lead underwriter of the IPO) actually bought up additional shares on Facebook's first day to prop up the share price so that it wouldn't fall below the initial offering price of $38 per share. Ouch.

WWDC 2012

Irreverent Bits will be at WWDC 2012 in June! Looking forward to seeing the latest from Apple for both Mac OS X and iOS.

Kids Loving Nedi the Yeti

Thanks for all the kind comments about Nedi the Yeti. It's been great hearing about and seeing the great reactions from kids to Nedi and his friends!